Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 10.791047 12.372382 14.072459 16.032188 18.224831 20.598347 23.357853
2025-11-09 8.448748 10.591726 13.072822 16.141611 19.817981 24.062555 29.314575
2025-11-16 7.171200 9.528573 12.391412 16.093994 20.722483 26.281531 33.423547
2025-11-23 6.137672 8.603450 11.731309 15.942601 21.410100 28.208743 37.233704
2025-11-30 5.451957 8.005195 11.367830 16.052872 22.332442 30.370057 41.331904
2025-12-07 5.012349 7.673432 11.297635 16.502437 23.676377 33.092580 46.237387
2025-12-14 4.434427 7.075912 10.794453 16.295278 24.085384 34.560557 49.512736
2025-12-21 3.802652 6.327996 10.003481 15.603707 23.749949 34.967097 51.329635
2025-12-28 3.562843 6.140438 9.997163 16.018256 24.970484 37.537057 56.191589
2026-01-04 3.316770 5.915308 9.909186 16.292344 25.983804 39.839544 60.751290
2026-01-11 3.007377 5.555832 9.581941 16.171867 26.391170 41.272679 64.107191
2026-01-18 2.725182 5.212002 9.247869 16.008506 26.708695 42.567683 67.289282
2026-01-25 2.501518 4.951176 9.033444 16.028374 27.321019 44.345599 71.289974
2026-02-01 2.321357 4.749113 8.899017 16.164882 28.117166 46.427562 75.822229
2026-02-08 2.126743 4.499678 8.661406 16.107472 28.587744 48.013842 79.641230
2026-02-15 1.937439 4.240189 8.384019 15.959441 28.893754 49.344268 83.101079
2026-02-22 1.806292 4.078317 8.264374 16.068556 29.618704 51.347320 87.659806
2026-03-01 1.734953 4.027230 8.339553 16.518965 30.930376 54.325795 93.845352
2026-03-08 1.581202 3.792934 8.057411 16.311461 31.105540 55.467753 97.134904
2026-03-15 1.382901 3.443678 7.529351 15.619349 30.399559 55.128732 98.009567
2026-03-22 1.332025 3.405860 7.598770 16.034238 31.652049 58.071611 104.320521
2026-03-29 1.268767 3.334141 7.595134 16.308571 32.661693 60.636367 110.081323
2026-04-05 1.169335 3.169956 7.392734 16.187986 32.947686 61.977890 113.840674